JT! Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 (edited) Ok, your on a game show, and you have a chance to win a [instert your favorite car here]. To win this car all you have to do is pick the right door out of 3. One has the car behind it, and the other two doors have a goat each behind them. When you pick a door the gameshow host opens one of the other two doors that you didn't pick, to reveal a goat. The gameshow host then gives you the choice of sticking with the door you have chosen, or swapping to the other one. Should you stick or should you swap? Which will give you the best chance of winning the car? Edited June 23, 2005 by JT! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Ok, your on a game show, and you have a chance to win a [instert your favorite car here]. To win this car all you have to do is pick the right door out of 3. One has the car behind it, and the other two doors have a goat each behind them. When you pick a door the gameshow host opens one of the other two doors that you didn't pick, to reveal a goat. The gameshow host then gives you the choice of sticking with the door you have chosen, or swapping to the other one. Should you stick or should you swap? What are the chances of getting the car if you stick, and what are the chances of getting the car if you swap? ← The chances were 1/3 but if he reveals one is a goat it drops to 1/2 strangely enough. Swapping is just a change of door not a change of odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
011001000110010101110010 Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 I think Im right when i say the probabilty of getting it right in the first place is 1 in 3 (1/3). Then when they open the door showing the goat you know your nearly there. So the probabilty os not 1 in 2 (1/2). So its 50/50. Will make no difference to the chances if you change of not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JT! Posted June 23, 2005 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Haha, nah your both wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Have you done this through a stem and leaf diagram?? Because you would get a different answer but you can't use it in this sitaution. If not whoever made it up needs to sort there Maths out because we're both right as far as I can see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JT! Posted June 23, 2005 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 .....as far as I can see. ← Not looking / thinking hard enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Want me to be arsey with it ok. You should swap, your odds on the swap are 1/2 whereas your first pick was 1/3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JT! Posted June 23, 2005 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 The odds of winning the car when you get down to only 2 doors are not 1/2. By swapping or sticking you will increase your odds of winning the car, swap or stick? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 The odds of winning the car when you get down to only 2 doors are not 1/2. By swapping or sticking you will increase your odds of winning the car, swap or stick? ← Oh wait I forgot 1 win out of 2 choices isn't 1/2. How can it not be, you've had a goat removed. You won't pick that. So it's gone from 1/3 to 1/2. Tell me the answer now (Y) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JT! Posted June 23, 2005 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Oh wait I forgot 1 win out of 2 choices isn't 1/2. How can it not be, you've had a goat removed. You won't pick that. So it's gone from 1/3 to 1/2. Tell me the answer now (Y) ← Telling you would spoil the fun, use your head. :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Telling you would spoil the fun, use your head. (Y) ← I think logically not into the uber deep meaning of the English. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mink Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Yawn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomm Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Haha, we did this before. Search for goat or something. It's the most difficult thing in the world to explain, crikey I tried! mink stop being so grumpy and fast! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 It's 1/2 unless you're a bummer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JT! Posted June 23, 2005 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 It's 1/2 unless you're a bummer. ← Well, then i'm a bummer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScotchDave Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Not only a bummer, a wrong bummer. (Y) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JT! Posted June 23, 2005 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Not only a bummer, a wrong bummer. (Y) ← I'm not wrong, it's a quite famous puzzle. Google it if you haven't got the brain power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomm Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Google it if you haven't got the brain power. ← Haha. It's called the "Monty Hall problem", so search for that. In a book I've got, there's loads of letters from PhD's explaining how it is "wrong" - They also couldn't get their head around it, don't be too ashamed MRMonkey! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JT! Posted June 23, 2005 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 I'll try and explain. Chances are you have picked a goat from the start, so even when one of the goats is revealed, theres a still 1/3 chance of you still having the goat. Swapping give you more change of winning. (Y) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben_travis Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 well it still confuses me because, if you open door one. then that is opened. u know there is a goat there, so therefore eliminated because you arent going to pick the same door again are you? which leaves two doors. 1/2 is a car 1/2 is a goat, so its 50/50 (Y), i still dont understand u monkeys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 I'll try and explain. Chances are you have picked a goat from the start, so even when one of the goats is revealed, theres a still 1/3 chance of you still having the goat. Swapping give you more change of winning. (Y) ← That's what I f**king said. If your chances are 1/3 to being with when your chances increase to 1/2 it's better to swap as it's better odds. f**king hell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScotchDave Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 What I think JT! is saying is that: you have 3 doors, you pick one, so the presenter opens one with a goat behind it, but now for some reason they keep the division of odds in thirds. So you have still got a 1/3 chance that your first pick was right, but because you have 3/3 and only one is used the other door has 2/3 of a chance to be the right one. Totally misses the point that once you have eliminated one door you have to re-assess the odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 What I think JT! is saying is that: you have 3 doors, you pick one, so the presenter opens one with a goat behind it, but now for some reason they keep the division of odds in thirds. So you have still got a 1/3 chance that your first pick was right, but because you have 3/3 and only one is used the other door has 2/3 of a chance to be the right one. Totally misses the point that once you have eliminated one door you have to re-assess the odds. ← Which is still what I said, just in thirds not re-assessing odds. >.< I could of said the odds change to 1.5/3 (Y) I know I'm right, the person who made it up was obvioulsy like a hardened pig shit..... Thick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biketrialler Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 There is 2 ways its goes. After they eliminate one of the doors as having a goat behind it, the sitation is... DOOR 1 -> Goat <-This is confirmed DOOR 2 -> Car <-your chosen door DOOR 3 -> Goat DOOR 1 -> Goat <-This is confirmed DOOR 2 -> Goat <-your chosen door DOOR 3 -> Car There is no reason why it cant be either of those ways around. You definitely have a 50-50 chance with each remaining door, whether you chose the sheep in the first place or not. As the odds have changed, as to the 1/3 chance scenario, you now MUST have only 2 choices. Hence a 50-50 odds. If someone tells me im wrong they would have to explain it very carefully as to why. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 If someone tells me im wrong they would have to explain it very carefully as to why. ← They can't you're right, any turd could tell you that you were right. Next time you have a shit go and ask it this "riddle" and I bet it says 50/50 or at least 1/2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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