matt710 Posted September 13, 2004 Report Share Posted September 13, 2004 (your pick)door 1= car/goat/goat (revealed)door 2=goat door 3=car/goat so door 1 is 1/3 chance to be a car and door 3 is 1/2 chance to be a car therefor you would seem stupid not to switch because probability shows that the car is most likely behind door 3 but since the door that is revealed has now been eliminated from the equation both door 1 and 3 have the same (50/50) chance of being the car so it is 1/2 chance your right and 1/2 chanceyour wrong now dont argue boys and girls cos i'm right and i know it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
excaliborg Posted September 13, 2004 Report Share Posted September 13, 2004 I also think you have googled it too! :P I tried last night lol I found a page with near enough the same answer :P Nah i didn't mate, it's something you have to think about for yourself rather than read. re-reading the initial question helped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomm Posted September 13, 2004 Report Share Posted September 13, 2004 now dont argue boys and girls cos i'm right and i know it ← Well as long as you think you're right (Y) I thought the whole point of this question was to show you not to jump to conclusions (ie The first guess of it being a 50-50 chance is wrong). Not "try and explain this to a million people." Never mind eh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom-ass Posted September 13, 2004 Report Share Posted September 13, 2004 (edited) You're more likely to choose the goat in the initial situation (2/3 rather than 1/3 for the car) therefore you are more likely to get the car if you switch doors.... because the door you have already chosen is more likely to be a goat. But the moral of the story is that maths is allways right, but this right answer does not allways represent whats happening... and this is the problem with mathematical probability, it doesnt apply to the individual situation at all.... For example, a doctor tells his patient he has to undergo life threataning heart surgery and explains that there is a 30% chance he'll make it and a 70% chance he'll not. The patient then asks, "am I in the 30% or the 70%". I like thinking Tom Edited September 13, 2004 by Tom-ass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme_biker0 Posted September 13, 2004 Report Share Posted September 13, 2004 now dont argue boys and girls cos i'm right and i know it Yeah mate what you've said is right. But it's not the answer. The question was would you swap doors. And that is where the extra few steps come in. What you've done is taken a snapshot of the whole picture and worked out a couple of probabilities. But there is some extra information given the background of the situation. That is - the door you are likely to have chosen first off was more likely to have been the goat than the car. Geddit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted September 13, 2004 Report Share Posted September 13, 2004 Door 2 has the car behind it if it was door 1 or 3 you would be able to see the sides of it (Y) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonMack Posted September 13, 2004 Report Share Posted September 13, 2004 If i understand the question correctly, then you have to swap. You open the first door, and its a goat, the host then opens a second door, and its another goat. Thats both the goats out of the picture, so if you swap, you are bound to get the car, as there is only one closed door. You are gaurenteed(sp?) the car if you dont get it first time then swap. If I am wrong, Peters initial explaination is crap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haydon_peter Posted September 13, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2004 If i understand the question correctly, then you have to swap. You open the first door, and its a goat, the host then opens a second door, and its another goat. Thats both the goats out of the picture, so if you swap, you are bound to get the car, as there is only one closed door. You are gaurenteed(sp?) the car if you dont get it first time then swap. If I am wrong, Peters initial explaination is crap. ← Read it you fool :) The player chooses a door, he does not open it (Y)" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonMack Posted September 13, 2004 Report Share Posted September 13, 2004 Yeah I thought that might be the case. So does the door you choose ever get opened? What a load of f**king crap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom-ass Posted September 13, 2004 Report Share Posted September 13, 2004 Yeah I thought that might be the case. So does the door you choose ever get opened? What a load of f**king crap ← There's no need to swear just because you dont get it... It doesnt do you any favours. Each to their own though I guess. I rate this topic :ermm: ... anyone got any more of this sort of thing? Tom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrMonkey Posted September 13, 2004 Report Share Posted September 13, 2004 Ok I've worked it out, you can't beat the presenter round the face with your fist, what about drugging him and the goats so they stumble out of the doors then you can pick the car. :ermm: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonMack Posted September 13, 2004 Report Share Posted September 13, 2004 There's no need to swear just because you dont get it... It doesnt do you any favours. Each to their own though I guess. I rate this topic :ermm: ... anyone got any more of this sort of thing? Tom ← I get it, but I want the car!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spunkey_monkey_boy Posted September 14, 2004 Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 (edited) i think it goes something like this... your first choices are on the left, your option to stick/change is the middle and the outcome is on the right proving you should always change because.... goat - stick = goat - change = car goat - stick = goat - change = car car - stick = car - change = goat as you can see, statistically if you change your choice you have a 2in3 chance of winning the car (right hand row, across from change, 2 out of the 3 show car) where as if you stick you only have a 1in3 chance (right row again across from stick, 1 of the 3 gives you a car) if this is not clear enough i could draw it and scan it in but i feel that would be a little excesive for this... :ermm: Edited September 14, 2004 by spunkey_monkey_boy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomm Posted September 14, 2004 Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 Spunkey's right :ermm: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spunkey_monkey_boy Posted September 14, 2004 Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 mathematically i'm right but realistically its still a 50/50 when your down to the last 2 doors... someone work out the overall probability, its been years since i did multiplication of fractions... 1/3 x 1/2 = ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomm Posted September 14, 2004 Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 mathematically i'm right but realistically its still a 50/50 when your down to the last 2 doors...No, chances are the first guess was wrong, so you should swap. It's because the door you have already chosen is likely to not be the one with the car. someone work out the overall probability, its been years since i did multiplication of fractions... 1/3 x 1/2 = ??? ← 1/6 I believe the overal chance of winning the car is 1/2, if the chance that you decide to swap is 1/2. Haha Just swap for god's sake :ermm: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oakley Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 right, i get this, as i am very clever! (Y) but the rule is not always correct, just because you are more likely to get a goat on your first pick, doesnt always mean you will!! a bigger chance doesnt mean a certanty! joE! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biketrialler Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Well done for bumping a thread started in septemberr 2004 (Y) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oakley Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 kool arent i!!! joE! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biketrialler Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 Yeah, sick mud. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davetrials Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 What the f**k is this about ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davetrials Posted June 23, 2005 Report Share Posted June 23, 2005 The MOST i have ever been confused. ← Oh i already posted. thats twice tonite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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