Covid19

[forteh]

Any lasting side effects yet Mike?

[MadManMike]

Too early to say really, I still feel a bit knackered, but no worse than getting over any other illness really. Still have a cough, but very infrequent now. Sore throat has gone.

I had it very mild, so I'm not expecting any lasting effects... I think it'll be people that were on respirators and stuff with really buggered lungs that'll have after effects, if anyone does.

[Rusevelt]

Extreme street spraying.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=CKd6R_1585373051

Trump signs how much!

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by Rusevelt

[monkeyseemonkeydo]

Eventually they'll get a vaccine which they'll be able to give to the most vulnerable like normal flu. I don't think we'll see these restrictions again for the same virus.

[forteh]

Or we clear out 99%, the virus mutates, reinfects again and the cycle repeats

[Davetrials]

12 hours ago, manuel said:

But will it come back after?

 

in other news I found out today that nursery closed for the foreseeable yesterday. Would have been nice to have an email. Not quite sure where I stand as a key worker and paying them whilst closed. 

I think this is going to be a sucky summer!
part of me does enjoy the whole social distancing whilst walking through the street, I hope that sticks. 

[Tom Booth]

I think quite alot of what we're practicing now will continue and just become life.

[forteh]

Works for me, I'm quite enjoying working from home. We're not social people, don't go to the pub and don't really visit many people, we homeschool anyways so apart from having to stay in the house a bit more it's life as normal

[Rusevelt]

How the f**k did we get from over 200 deaths on Tuesday, to this...

 

[MadManMike]

I think it was expected and is due to get much worse before it gets better... I don't think this was a surprise.

Hopefully the peak doesn't end up as big as they first expected though!

[Mark W]

'Herd immunity' principle worked out as being around 510,000 deaths.  They're now talking about whether we'll be able to keep it under 20,000.  Seems we're on the right path at least.  I think the potential for working from home, whether people really need to be in offices doing meetings and all that kind of thing will probably have a sizeable effect too.  Just depends how many businesses are able to sustain themselves through this time.

A few people have been ringing alarm bells for a while about this style of virus.  Swine flu, bird flu and SARS have all started kicking in over a relatively short period of time (compared to how long we've been around), and this is just an extension of that.  It's only likely to be more common, although we can add our knowledge from dealing with this one to better prepare/fight against the next one.  Hopefully next time China won't downplay it for the first couple of months and allow it to get massively out of hand, and we won't have clueless f**kwits like Trump and to a lesser extent Johnson and his cronies in power.  This is the kind of situation where voting someone in because they wind up people you don't like really shows those 'leaders' up for who they are.  Trump shutting down everything Obama started to deal with this kind of pandemic for example.  At least Michael Gove is recognising that "experts" are useful now.  Baby steps...

[JT!]

On 3/28/2020 at 7:56 PM, Rusevelt said:

Trump signs how much!

Trump is actually right on the money here, we (goes for both UK and USA) aren't in a recession, we're in the middle of a natural disaster. Once we get out of the eye of the storm things will go back to normal pretty quickly.

23 hours ago, monkeyseemonkeydo said:

Eventually they'll get a vaccine which they'll be able to give to the most vulnerable like normal flu. I don't think we'll see these restrictions again for the same virus.

I'm not sure a vaccine will be much use by the time it comes out, as easy as this is spreading, most people will be immune to it by the end of the year anyway by means of just contracting it.

16 hours ago, Rusevelt said:

How the f**k did we get from over 200 deaths on Tuesday, to this...

Exponential growth combined with a 2-3 week delay on symptoms. The UK has been in lockdown only for a week, so all the people who were contagious with no symptoms, going to bars and restaurants and infecting people for that time means 2-3 weeks from that point is where we see the peak of cases and deaths. That time hasn't come yet as the lockdown has only been going on for 1 week. So expect to see a exponential raise over the next 2 weeks, then a peak at week 4, then new cases will start to drop IF a lockdown is actually something that works.

Realistically for the lockdown to work, it just needs to flatten the curve enough so that the NHS doesn't get overwhelmed with patents. That's really the only achievable goal as of now.

[JT!]

On 3/28/2020 at 10:24 AM, manuel said:

Ok simple question. When do people think covid19 will be “over”? No restrictions, out of thought, just another seasonal virus we can sort easily? 
 

Because it's spreading so easily, a lot of people will eventually become immune quickly. I think it'll go away as quick as it came because of that. My predictions are, people will start going back to work their non essential jobs around the middle of May after April will be the worst of it. This'll freak people out as we'll start seeing new cases raise again, but they're not rising anywhere near levels that they did in April. Through the summer it'll wind down as more and more will be immune by then. By the end of the summer natural herd immunity will kill it off pretty quickly, start of fall it'll be all in the past.

[manuel]

I have several big fears.

1. Immunity doesn't last long enough and the cycle repeats with the same virus until a vaccine or treatment is found in over a years time.

2. the virus mutates enough that the vaccine isn’t super effective and the whole thing cycles on (although mutation is more likely to make it less deadly)

3. Someone in my closest circle of friends or family dies (irrational dad brain is mostly worried about griff even through he is in the lowest risk group), and has to die alone. I have some in high risk groups. I’m not sure how I’d cope with that given how seriously I’ve been taking it since it was first reported, and how many of the people I work with and some friends have treated it like a joke and behaved pretty poorly.

4. Number of people requiring treatment will massively outstrip resources and people will die  needlessly because we waited to act. Numbers look pretty borderline/bad.

5. The fallout financially might (probably will) last longer than a decade, even if the virus doesn’t.

 

I'm not in a super positive mood this morning.

I also only worked out it was Sunday yesterday when I turned the telly on and antiques roadshow was on. 

[Luke Rainbird]

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, JT! said:

Trump is actually right on the money here, we (goes for both UK and USA) aren't in a recession, we're in the middle of a natural disaster.

Are you sure about that? Do the two need to be mutually exclusive?

We're long overdue a normal, cyclical recession at the moment. The economic impact of C19 could very easily (may already have) kickstart the recession which many experts have been forecasting to begin late 2020/early 2021 anyway.

[MadManMike]

In theory all the businesses that are closed will re-open and will re-employ people, but in reality many will have gone under and can't simply re-open their doors once we're allowed out... Many bigger companies will recover quickly I think, but the impact of this will last quite some time for the smaller guys I would imagine.

16 minutes ago, manuel said:

I have several big fears.

1. Immunity doesn't last long enough and the cycle repeats with the same virus until a vaccine or treatment is found in over a years time.

2. the virus mutates enough that the vaccine isn’t super effective and the whole thing cycles on (although mutation is more likely to make it less deadly)

3. Someone in my closest circle of friends or family dies (irrational dad brain is mostly worried about griff even through he is in the lowest risk group), and has to die alone. I have some in high risk groups. I’m not sure how I’d cope with that given how seriously I’ve been taking it since it was first reported, and how many of the people I work with and some friends have treated it like a joke and behaved pretty poorly.

4. Number of people requiring treatment will massively outstrip resources and people will die  needlessly because we waited to act. Numbers look pretty borderline/bad.

5. The fallout financially might (probably will) last longer than a decade, even if the virus doesn’t.

 

I'm not in a super positive mood this morning.

I also only worked out it was Sunday yesterday when I turned the telly on and antiques roadshow was on. 

I'm worried about some of my family too, but you need to try not to think too much about the "what ifs" - all of these things could happen and time will tell, but try and stay positive.

The number of deaths from flu each year is pretty massive and that's with a vaccine, I think realistically this is what we'll see from this virus in the end too, once this initial spike is done. I'm no scientist though, that's just my guess...

[stalled]

14 minutes ago, MadManMike said:

(...) The number of deaths from flu each year is pretty massive and that's with a vaccine, I think realistically this is what we'll see from this virus in the end too, once this initial spike is done. I'm no scientist though, that's just my guess...

Unfortunately, what epidemiologists have been warning about is that this is no flu, a lot closer to pneumonia, but a severe case of it, what doctors call bilateral interstitial pneumonia. In the beginning, when it was "only" in China, the media themselves and even national health authorities disseminated the idea that this is just some kind of variation of the seasonal flu virus, the influenza. Not exactly.

Even if some of the symptoms look similar, many patients will reach the shortness of breath stage and when that happens you need assisted ventilation. Multiply hundreds of cases like these in few days, most of them in need for several days if not weeks and no health care system has the capability to offer the treatment to everyone.

If everything goes according to the best estimates, lots and lots of people will die and the effect will be more pronounced in countries that delayed the contention measures. I am very afraid for the USA, Brasil and even the UK right now. Massive population, late to very late measures, it will be bad. It will escalate very rapidly in the next few weeks and it will be shocking to see hundreds of people dying every day...

[MadManMike]

I wasn't comparing it to flu directly, I was saying that I think it'll recur like flu does annually. It's from the same family of virus, after all.

I'm aware death toll and the illness itself is not comparable.

[JT!]

45 minutes ago, Luke Rainbird said:

Are you sure about that? Do the two need to be mutually exclusive?

We're long overdue a normal, cyclical recession at the moment. The economic impact of C19 could very easily (may already have) kickstart the recession which many experts have been forecasting to begin late 2020/early 2021 anyway.

No not sure about that at all haha. It depends how long it goes on for and how long people are out of work. I know here a bill was just passed here that's going to give a lot of money to the public and businesses (me and my wife are literally going to get a check for $2400 even though our income has gone up because of the virus) so if that's enough to hold everything over for a couple of months, at which point I think we're going get over the worst of it, then the economy will spring back almost instantly.

But if it goes on for longer then who knows.

[JT!]

4 minutes ago, MadManMike said:

I wasn't comparing it to flu directly, I was saying that I think it'll recur like flu does annually. It's from the same family of virus, after all.

But wouldn't people get it at the same roughly the same rate as the seasonal flu because we're all are potentially going to be immune to it from this round? So the 2nd wave wouldn't be anywhere near as bad at this one?

[MadManMike]

Just now, JT! said:

But wouldn't people get it at the same roughly the same rate as the seasonal flu because we're all are potentially going to be immune to it from this round? So the 2nd wave wouldn't be anywhere near as bad at this one?

Exactly, I doubt we'd see a peak like this again, but I suspect it'll come back around to a certain degree.

I've had flu 3 or 4 times in my life, so the theory that you're immune after one go doesn't stack up... You'd be immune to that strain I guess.

Like I said, I'm no expert, that's just what I think could happen.

[JT!]

1 minute ago, MadManMike said:

Exactly, I doubt we'd see a peak like this again, but I suspect it'll come back around to a certain degree.

I've had flu 3 or 4 times in my life, so the theory that you're immune after one go doesn't stack up... You'd be immune to that strain I guess.

Like I said, I'm no expert, that's just what I think could happen.

My understanding is that when something like a flu or the common cold mutates and comes around next season our bodies already know how to fight that type off because it's so similar and needs to do less work to figure it out, it can still make people sick however, but it's much less likely to. Obviously covid-19 is new so that initial resistance isn't there at all.

[MadManMike]

12 minutes ago, JT! said:

My understanding is that when something like a flu or the common cold mutates and comes around next season our bodies already know how to fight that type off because it's so similar and needs to do less work to figure it out, it can still make people sick however, but it's much less likely to. Obviously covid-19 is new so that initial resistance isn't there at all.

Exactly what I'm getting at. We won't see a huge peak again, but it might act like flu and come back again... Because we're all more resistant to it, there won't be a ridiculous surge in cases.

[MadManMike]

But this is all guesswork at the moment, nobody knows what it will do.

[JT!]

Yeah I'm pretty much throwing all my opinions out there so I can come back and gloat if I'm right. Either way we'll have a crap load of ventilators so if something like this happens again we'll be all set!