EU Referendum

[Mark W]

Yeah, that's very much the case.  I think that's why there's been a bunch of posts on FB saying that now, more than ever, is a time to buy British produce.

That's also what's kind of weird in that a lot of Wales is agriculture dominated, and pretty much all (if not all) of Wales voted leave.  That said, you only need to see the previous articles posted about EU funding for Ebbw Vale and Cornwall to see that direct, tangible benefits of being part of the EU weren't enough to make communities vote remain.

EDIT: Just had a quick read up on it:

"The CAP scheme has two main pillars: direct payments, known as the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS), and funding for the wider rural economy.

In 2015, UK farmers received almost €3.1bn (£2.4bn) in direct payments, according to the NFU.  Farmers have access to the €5.2bn (£4bn) pot of funding that has been allocated to the UK for rural development projects over the period 2014-2020, including €2.3bn that has been transferred from the BPS to the UK rural development programmes.  

In total, 55 per cent of UK total income from farming comes from CAP support.

"It's impossible to measure the impact of being outside the EU since we do not know the relationship the UK would have with the EU nor the conditions under which our farmers would be expected to operate if we left," the NFU points out.

Simply removing the CAP support, while it remained in place in the rest of Europe, "could devastate British farming", Meurig Raymond, the NFU President, told the BBC recently.

Consultancy Agra Europe suggests land prices would crash and 90 per cent of farmers could go out of business.

It concluded: "What is certain is that no UK government would subsidise agriculture on the scale operated under the CAP.""

...so, yeah.  About those payments.

[monkeyseemonkeydo]

But then I guess that's partly where that £350M per week comes in- that's vaguely what we paid to the EU and overall we still paid £100M per week to the EU so from that 'saved' (lols) money all the farming subsidies can still be paid. Now the funding pots for farmers is obviously something very different and that's one big impact from my perspective- EU funding for research grants at Universities is a fairly big deal and if that were to just go away things could get pretty sticky for more than a few people and that's before you consider the thousands of EU students and researchers who choose to come to the UK who may well now be thinking twice.

[Mark W]

It kind of depends how you slice that "£350million a week" thing though.  Once you've factored in the rebate, and the money we received back in funding from the EU, that's only leaving the just over £110million a week to fill those CAP subsidies, regional development shit like what was happening in Ebbw Vale (to use a relevant thing to both of us in that: "All around town are signs marked with the EU flag for the Ebbw Vale enterprise zone. The website notes that as an EU tier 1 area, “companies can benefit from the highest level of grant aid in the UK”. Earlier this year the sports car company TVR announced it would build a factory and create 150 jobs there. Will it still come? Will the Circuit of Wales, a multimillion-pound motor racing circuit a private company has been proposing to build on the town’s outskirts creating 6,000 jobs?" - you won't get that when it's just a bit of money on the side from the government), the hole in funding for Cornwall, etc.  They were predicting a £30bn funding 'black hole' we'd have in the UK, and while that was coming from the Chancellor so clearly skewed in a Project Fear-y kind of way, it's probably not far from the truth when you realise how far reaching EU funding/money was.

[jeff costello]

44 minutes ago, Mark W said:

...so, yeah.  About those payments.

(i mean of course "competitive", not "compatible" in the last post. i kept repeating the word in my head and it kept sounding wrong, but i couldn't come up with the right one. i feel ashamed)

 

thanks for the research.

so there's just three possiblitities, either the uk comes up with the money, they implement high import tolls or the uk will be flooded with cheaper eu-produce.

but i keep forgetting that the uk pays more the eu than it gets in return, so it should be manageable. the remaining question is whether a brexit will cost you more than what you paid before.

[CC12345678910]

@Mark W I did read all that but if I interpret correctly the too long... version is that all tories are f**kwited thunderc**ts that only look after themselves, their mates and the big corps (not mutally exclusive) using the power of 'running' the country to do so, and screwing we the people over as collateral. Agreed. But that's what politiciains do. And I thought all goverment being shit was a given too - you just essayed a comprehsive list of examples as it happens, so what, in a concise opinion, makes a load of people in brussels any better? (kind of circling back to why in?? question)

The divides were already there, it just needed a catalyst. Same with the markets. If you're an investment bank with too much sterling in the vault and you want to make some quick coin, dump a load of theoretical fiftyies on to the market, use the proceeds to buy a smaller amount of other currency, sit on that, laugh like a bond villian for a bit as the world gets turned over and the news channels go nuts, now buy a load of cheap GBP, wait out the storm and sell now valueable £ for a 2nd f**king hooge profit. All you need is a public event to blame it on and your golden. Pretty much works for any commodity or any world event.

@jeff costello 'I hate wastefulness' would mean that I'm the kind of person where everything has two lives, everything can be repurposed, and, in things mechanical especially, If I come to to the conclusion that something is f**ked, then something really is done for. But even then I'll be looking for something to scavenge off it before it hits the scrap pile to fester for a bit, just in case a situation arises where that something is now slightly useful again, before getting tipped/weighed in to be recycled. Now juxtapose that against the massive cloud of irrevelent useless hot air being spouted in that chamber today, & presumibly every other sitting, using untold resource, with absolutely sweet FA being accomplished as a result.

And in my idil it doesn't have to be 'big industry' to class as making shit - I have faarr more respect for man-in-shed-with-lathe-miller-and-welder type cottage industry. Think micro breweries, but making anything from made by hand sand cast then cnc'd barrels for a Suzuki T20 or TR500 (google them, a cause close to my heart) to people like Morgan or BAC where there's about 20 peeps working for em.

EU rules seek type aproval and other hoops to be jumped through for all this stuff, styfulling creativity, talent, individualism and macro economical growth (JCB agree) all so the slanted rules can give favour to VAG, Merc, Beemer, Porsche, Renault-Nissan, Peugeot, Citroen. The big players in the EU are? Germany, France, and kinda by proxy Italy, since Audi bought Ducati as a backdoor handout.

You can call me a trog all you want but I just don't trust big buisness in any form (even if I do want some of their cars) and the goverments that protect them, especially in the case of a trade project gone rampant. How many tiers of useless organisations used as means for people in tailored suits to argue endlessly does the world need?

Edited June 28, 2016 by CC12345678910
Yeah gonna read the replies but I'm stopping replying now. Too much rant.

[Mark W]

37 minutes ago, CC12345678910 said:

....And I thought all goverment being shit was a given too - you just essayed a comprehsive list of examples as it happens, so what, in a concise opinion, makes a load of people in brussels any better...

You've fully missed my point there.  I was saying that this is probably going to go down in history as one of the worst governments we'll have had on all manner of levels, and that the things they're doing are worse in both an objective and subjective way than any modern government before them.  Thatcher's government is notorious for the shit she tried pulling, and this government have gone far beyond what she managed to do in terms of privatisation and general croneyism.  Bodies like the UN and the EU put the brakes on some of their actions, e.g. the workers rights stuff I mentioned before.  That's why I'd rather not leave now when it's these sketchy bastards who are holding the reins.  As I said before, we could hold as many referendums about this as we want whenever we want, but once we initiate that Article 50 shenanigans that's kind of it.  I don't feel this is in any way the time to be doing it.

[Mark W]

38 minutes ago, CC12345678910 said:

EU rules seek type aproval and other hoops to be jumped through for all this stuff, styfulling creativity, talent, individualism and macro economical growth

That's one perspective on it - prior to the single market, if you wanted to export your product to another market it had to comply with their laws and legislation whereas the EU circumvented that so if, say, you made something that was cool in the UK and France, it might not have been cool in - say - Spain.  As a result of the single market it is.  Surely your examples of smaller companies show that it's still possible to be a company and do your own thing?  If anything the single market opens up opportunities for you to export to a wider range of consumers because you haven't got all those individual things to worry about, and you've also got a lack of customs fees and shit to deal with (as an example, if we ship a bike to France, we don't really have to put much of anything on the customs form, but if we're exporting a T-shirt to America we have to put an exhaustive customs declaration with it about what it's made from, the gender it's intended for, the print type, whether it's knit or woven and a whole host of other stuff.  For brake fluid there's another form.  For a complete bike it again has to be a comprehensive description.  This is just for selling on fairly basic, off-the-shelf items too).

[lifes-a-trial]

On 6/8/2016 at 9:31 PM, bikeperson45 said:

I completely agree with this - If there's a country of people voting who are just as non-educated on this as me I think that's the wrong way of doing things. 

If that was the case in general, what about  voting in normal elections in the UK ? Having the right to vote is part of the foundations of Democracy.

[CC12345678910]

56 minutes ago, Mark W said:

You've fully missed my point there.  I was saying that this is probably going to go down in history as one of the worst governments we'll have had on all manner of levels, and that the things they're doing are worse in both an objective and subjective way than any modern government before them.  Thatcher's government is notorious for the shit she tried pulling, and this government have gone far beyond what she managed to do in terms of privatisation and general croneyism.  Bodies like the UN and the EU put the brakes on some of their actions, e.g. the workers rights stuff I mentioned before.  That's why I'd rather not leave now when it's these sketchy bastards who are holding the reins.  As I said before, we could hold as many referendums about this as we want whenever we want, but once we initiate that Article 50 shenanigans that's kind of it.  I don't feel this is in any way the time to be doing it.

Ok one more reply... As it happens thats the best answer for in i've heard so far. Buuut we're supposed to be leaving & if you look further down the line to an election before 2020, that now has the potential of sorting itself out by moving on to a different bunch of tits. BTW I fully expected when I voted that who ever was in charge on the friday morning to ignore the people and carry on their sweet way anyway.

Point 2: What if the small buisiness operation, ie a one lad bedroom buisness start up trying to produce enough turnover to then stand proud & call it a legit venture, with a van & everything, isn't export orientated? To be fully above board the product still has to come up to EU scratch (typically in line with german TUV regs) does it not? That's the way it was when was researching manufacturing small batch (<10) quantity product. I found this understandable but also frustrating & deeply unfair to the small guy. The single market idil's postive points are great, the politics that protect self interests of the big guys is utter bs - imo you have to already be a quarter to half million pound 'small' business to make it work for you, something the size tartys was when I started ordering bits getting on for 10yrs ago now, and the firm had been going a couple of years already by that point from what I understand - I mean even the old shop was a fair old spot.

As for the customs forms, there was a time before where that was the norm? I understand after the luxury of just writing 'onza bike' or whatever on the EU form a proper customs form must be a pain, but it's hardly going to end the world? If the single market had never been a thing or wasn't an option anymore surely it'd be man up time? Plus, although I think you get this already, approval for stuff manufactured in a shed by one bloke is a total different kettle of fish to tarts shipping stuff around the world. The most beuroctatic thing you'd encounter is a 3 page customs form, in the sitiuation I was going to end up in that would be the bit that was a piece of piss. It killed my idea and aspirations stone dead.

[lifes-a-trial]

On 6/8/2016 at 9:31 PM, bikeperson45 said:

I completely agree with this - If there's a country of people voting who are just as non-educated on this as me I think that's the wrong way of doing things. 

If that was the case in general, what about  voting in normal elections in the UK ? Having the right to vote is part of the foundations of Democracy.

[lifes-a-trial]

On 6/23/2016 at 0:23 PM, Mark W said:

How do you mean, out of interest?

The people going "I'm going to vote leave because of my gut instinct" is a little concerning.  This is a pretty major decision, so to not actually look into anything to do with it but then just vote on a whim isn't really great.

What about the people who (out of gut instinct) vote remain ? That is just as concerning if that is your view.,

Thing is, the gut instinct is a human trait that is all powerful and is what humanity from the beginning of time go with when decisions are made .

[Jolfa]

3 hours ago, lifes-a-trial said:

What about the people who (out of gut instinct) vote remain ? That is just as concerning if that is your view.

Not really, had we stayed then we could have later decided to leave, perhaps with a plan, nothing would have changed and our favourable position in the worlds biggest economy would have remained the same.

We can't really now decide to later rejoin and be back where we were, there is no plan as to what we do next and our economy is on it's arse, and that's how it was always going to happen...

[jeff costello]

8 hours ago, CC12345678910 said:

As for the customs forms, there was a time before where that was the norm? I understand after the luxury of just writing 'onza bike' or whatever on the EU form a proper customs form must be a pain, but it's hardly going to end the world?

works the other way too though. if the uk really exited i probably wouldn't order from tarty again. as much as i like their shop, dealing with money transfers and customs declaration / fees is just too annoying. before paypal i more or less never ever ordered from the uk, because the money transfer was crazy expensive. uk would become like the usa - i don't order anything from there unless there isn't any other way or it is below all custom fee limits.

[Mark W]

17 hours ago, lifes-a-trial said:

What about the people who (out of gut instinct) vote remain ? That is just as concerning if that is your view.,

Thing is, the gut instinct is a human trait that is all powerful and is what humanity from the beginning of time go with when decisions are made .

To the point about gut instinct remain votes - the thing with that is that that would be continuing the status quo, which although ideal didn't have a wide range of experts in various fields suggesting that shit would massively hit the fan and start a chain reaction that would be unstoppable.  To just 'gut instinct' a leave vote without actually spending much time really looking into the ramifications of it seems a bit off.  It's a massive deal (as people are finding out now), so to be that blase about it isn't really a great move, whereas at least with gut instincting for remain you weren't likely to trigger a massive global issue.  

Gut instinct about something massively complicated like this isn't right all that often.  This article covers a little, but for example there was the poll conducted before the referendum where people were asked what they felt immigration levels were like.  On average among the leave voters they were saying they thought that around 20% of the population of the UK were immigrants, but that's nowhere near the case at all.  It's similar when you look at the public perception of the number of Islamic/Muslim people in the UK, the amount we spend on benefits in the UK, etc.  Nearly half of people in a different poll believed the "£350m a week" thing to be true as a more pertinent example - something that was clearly a lie if you did 5secs of research, and something that the leave campaign instantly distanced themselves from as soon as they found they'd won.

17 hours ago, CC12345678910 said:

Ok one more reply... As it happens thats the best answer for in i've heard so far. Buuut we're supposed to be leaving & if you look further down the line to an election before 2020, that now has the potential of sorting itself out by moving on to a different bunch of tits.

Not necessarily - have you seen what the (Parliamentary) Labour Party are trying to do to the Labour Party with Jeremy Corbyn?  Mass backstabbing and trying to force the whole opposition to the brink to try and force him to resign, which isn't going to happen.  The Tories got a majority after the shit they did between 2010 and 2015, and that was with a restraint placed on them by the Lib Dems - I can see it happening again, especially now Labour have lost what was a significant power base for them in the form of Scotland.

Point 2: What if the small buisiness operation, ie a one lad bedroom buisness start up trying to produce enough turnover to then stand proud & call it a legit venture, with a van & everything, isn't export orientated? To be fully above board the product still has to come up to EU scratch (typically in line with german TUV regs) does it not? That's the way it was when was researching manufacturing small batch (<10) quantity product. I found this understandable but also frustrating & deeply unfair to the small guy.

That kind of depends though - I know of plenty of friends of mine who run small scale manufacturing setups who aren't in line with those (or could be, but aren't 'officially') and it's never been a problem.  They tend to be in the small scale metal fabrication line of things though, so it would depend more on what you were looking at doing - if it's, say, creating soaps (as a relative of mine tried doing) then there are hoops you have to jump through, but again they seem to be there to help the consumer in a fairly realistic/safe way, in the sense that you have to prove that the product you're making is safe.

As for the customs forms, there was a time before where that was the norm? I understand after the luxury of just writing 'onza bike' or whatever on the EU form a proper customs form must be a pain, but it's hardly going to end the world? If the single market had never been a thing or wasn't an option anymore surely it'd be man up time? Plus, although I think you get this already, approval for stuff manufactured in a shed by one bloke is a total different kettle of fish to tarts shipping stuff around the world. The most beuroctatic thing you'd encounter is a 3 page customs form, in the sitiuation I was going to end up in that would be the bit that was a piece of piss. It killed my idea and aspirations stone dead.

Our shipping thing was just a small example, but I meant more in terms of the legislation in separate countries that you'd have to comply with, all of which would differ.  Again, it's pretty specific to the things you make though as to whether they'd benefit you as a manufacturer.  It seems like pretty much all of them benefit the consumer as they're basically ensuring that the shit you buy is 'safe' (again, depending on what you're actually dealing with).

A bit more on that Jeremy Corbyn thing that I just read - to summarise the bit before it, the PLP MPs hoping to f**k him off were hopefully that they would be able to force a leadership election, and make sure he didn't get enough votes from the PLP members to be on the ballot.  Unfortunately their laws state that the incumbent (in this case Corbyn) will automatically be on the ballot paper.  The members of the Labour Party back him (over 60% said they'd vote for him again).  This is a little follow up:

"They will not be happy; this coup, which seems to have taken an extraordinary amount of effort to manufacture, has been planned for months. Despite many MPs claims that it was triggered by Corbyn’s performance in the EU Referendum campaign, The Canary has been reporting since early March – more than a month before the campaign was launched – that a coup was planned for the summer, after the EU referendum but before the party conference. ‘Labour sources’ have made no secret of it; they have been briefing everyone from Huffington Post to The Times (paywall) for months that the coup would come this summer. And just two weeks ago, they briefed The Telegraph that they hoped to oust him in a “24-hour blitz after the EU referendum”. All they hid were their identities.""

They are real pieces of shit...

[Jolfa]

Bit of interesting reading on that -

http://www.thecanary.co/2016/06/28/truth-behind-labour-coup-really-began-manufactured-exclusive/

[Mark W]

Yeah, a lot of info has been coming out about it.  Without getting too "jet fuel can't melt steel beams" about it, most of the mainstream media really don't give a f**k about mentioning any of that for pretty obvious (if totally bullshit) reasons.

Did you see the article about the MPs who are resigning starting up a new party called the Labour Party and trying to co-opt the originally Labour party imagery so they can 'start again' but still have the same 'brand'?  They're being really cunty about this.

[Jolfa]

How would that work?! Surely it'd have to be Labour2 or something, no?

[lifes-a-trial]

On 6/30/2016 at 2:00 AM, Jolfa said:

How would that work?! Surely it'd have to be Labour2 or something, no?

NO

[Mark W]

Maybe - 'Labour Leave' was a partially Labour MP run but Tory funded party that used the Labour colour themes/look, and they got away with that.  I guess the name's not super important realistically, if you've got wealthy donors and experienced MPs then you're kind of set.  The guy who set up UKIP seems keen to make a new party to mop up all the disaffected Labour/Tory/UKIP voters/MPs, and do it without Farage fronting it, so it could be a good opening for them...

[jeff costello]

austria just found the solution you guys need: find minor procedural error - redo vote - problem solved.

Edited July 2, 2016 by jeff costello

[Mark W]

Theresa May.

Theresa f**king May.

[Rusevelt]

You seen surprised by that remark, Mark, since you've been 'calling it right' with all the political events that have happened over the past couple of weeks. 

Interesting take of coincidence if you reverse the initials of Theresa May's name T.M to M.T of a former Tory PM.

[Mark W]

Nah, not really surprised by it as such, just the reality of it actually happening, and happening by the end of the day on Wednesday.  She's been a pretty terrible Home Secretary, can't really see how this is going to end well.  Bearing in mind the shit she's come up with for policy in the past, she's a dangerous person to have trying to "negotiate" our withdrawal from the EU.

Incidentally, all the Leave camp who said we just need to 'work hard', you guys need to work harder.  The £ is still f**ked, our economy isn't recovering and it's probably going to dip again on Thursday if they announce dropping interest rates further.  You know - all those things that were widely predicted pre-referendum.  Similarly, it sounds like remaining as part of the EEA (aka "Doing a Norway") is the option they're trying to align themselves with most, again something that was widely predicted pre-referendum (and widely accepted as being much shitter than the position we were in before).

[manuel]

Well the Labour Party is at least an entertaining distraction. Angela Eagle in with a chance of being leader and instantly rejected by her constituents. Or Corbyn winning and a new party being born by the ensuing split. Just wtf...

[Mark W]

I'd back the latter.  There doesn't really seem to be anything good about Angela Eagle at all apart from the fact that she's willing to be the figurehead for the anti-Corbyn front of the Labour Party.  Her voting record suggests you're basically better off just voting Conservative rather than her particular brand of Conservative-Lite.