EU Referendum

[Mark W]

16 hours ago, GavLawson said:

I think the public is looking into the Scottish EU vote in the wrong way. In Scotland a nation known for being Pro-EU and Pro-Labour over 1 million people voted to leave. I was expecting something close to 90% remain.

I wouldn't expect it to be that high in any area, mainly because of things like the hard times you're talking about people facing in Aberdeen.  There are a bunch of different articles about it, but to sum it up with a quote from one: "The toxic combination of the most prolonged period of economic stagnation and the worst refugee crisis since the end of the Second World War has seen the far-Right surging across the continent, from Athens to Amsterdam and many points in between."  Quite a lot of the hardships people find themselves in tend to get pinned on external influences, and that leads to things like the Right/Far Right gaining traction.  That side of things seems to naturally align with the Leave vote, and that's how they campaigned the whole time - all their schtick was about the "£350m a week", immigration and so on.  I don't agree with it but I can see how that would be an attractive proposition as it seems to quite neatly sum up a solution to the problems people are facing.

I guess the thing for Scottish independence now is whether they're receive more support from the EU or Westminster.  Typically it seems the latter are less open than the former - for example Cornwall used to receive a lot of money from the EU to prop up their economy (and, after voting Leave are trying to pull this shit).  

[Mark W]

17 hours ago, jeff costello said:

not german, but close enough. süddeutsche falls into the awesome spectrum!  liberal and left-oriented. guardian-ish possibly?

Ah, cool - my bad!  Was just curious, I was reading some articles on there that were their take on the referendum having seen them linked elsewhere.  Just wanted to gauge what that paper is 'really' like.  Cheers for the heads up

[HippY]

This is one of those time again, where I have to admit that I am agreeing with Mrs Clarkson

[jeff costello]

30 minutes ago, Mark W said:

Ah, cool - my bad!  Was just curious, I was reading some articles on there that were their take on the referendum having seen them linked elsewhere.  Just wanted to gauge what that paper is 'really' like.  Cheers for the heads up

nonono, I'M not german, but close.

Süddeutsche is of course german (from munich to be precise. "süddeutsche" meaning "from southern germany").

[Mark W]

Haha, that makes sense.  I was pretty sure it was German but thought I'd just massively f**ked up

[monkeyseemonkeydo]

At least we now know that 51.9% of people in the UK are officially stupid. Whenever you call someone a moron, idiot or retard you now have a 51.9% chance of being right.

[Mark W]

Haha, I don't think I'd go that far, although the clips of people saying they voted Leave because they thought Remain would win (and wanted Remain to win) but didn't want Remain to win by too much don't help.  Also, that dude who's posted the screenshot of the £/€ rate at €1.24 with the chart from the past few years and going "People keep saying that the pound is the weakest its been in 30 years but I just did 10secs on google and found this", as if that proves anything at all other than 10 seconds isn't enough time to really understand how that shit works.

[jeff costello]

just read a funny thing.

in a facebook post austrian green party member of euro-parlament said, since uk has to exit now, but doesn't really want to, there is a possibility that the uk might enter the EEA (european economic area). the EEA comprises norway, liechtenstein and iceland and grants access to the european inland market.... BUT the catch is that all EEA-members have to implement all EU-regulations without having a say in their making (he called it "being governed by fax") or getting any extras. he thinks there's  a good chance it might acutually happen.

Edited June 26, 2016 by jeff costello

[Jolfa]

https://m.facebook.com/#!/sarah.leblanc.718/albums/10101369198638985/?ref=m_notif&notif_t=feedback_reaction_generic

These are exactly the kind of morons who voted for this shit with any kind of conviction, and that's terrifying.

[Mark W]

1 hour ago, jeff costello said:

just read a funny thing.

in a facebook post austrian green party member of euro-parlament said, since uk has to exit now, but doesn't really want to, there is a possibility that the uk might enter the EEA (european economic area). the EEA comprises norway, liechtenstein and iceland and grants access to the european inland market.... BUT the catch is that all EEA-members have to implement all EU-regulations without having a say in their making (he called it "being governed by fax") or getting any extras. he thinks there's  a good chance it might acutually happen.

Yeah, that was the obvious 'solution' - the Leave camp seemed to think they could get access to the EEA without the freedom of movement side of things, or other EU regulations.  Clearly never going to work, but they didn't really have to justify it anyway as it was just all words and bluster.  The Leave camp was just a bunch of various politicians lashing out soundbites - they didn't have to prove anything would be sustainable or effective, just get the votes.  They're now coming out and saying that they wouldn't try and end the free movement of labour (you can watch that interview here, classic bullshit from UKIP).

Remain supporters didn't get what they voted for, and it turns out that despite 'winning', Leave voters won't either.

[jeff costello]

it's all pretty well dire. nobody gets what they wanted. and you can't even really vote again, because this undermines fundamental democratic principles.
and that people are unhappy that even the most rightwing of politicians aren't far enough for them.

i didn't know the EEA thing was part of their plan anyway. sorry, i didn't follow the brexit-campain, because i figured it was the ususal right-wing mumbojumbo and i didn't think there was any chance it would actually win. i'm busy enough trying to avoid hearing about the local rightwing nonsense.

what i find very much concerning EU-wise is that the calls for a more nation state based europe are starting. the rightwinger guy who got close to 50% in austria of course already asks for an austrian exit referendum.

 

[Mark W]

It wasn't openly part of their plan - that would have been suicide as far as the vote was concerned.  They just muddied the waters until people moved on really.  See Michael Gove saying that "We've had enough of experts".  Dumb it all down, hope for the best.

Saw this on FB, could be interesting if true:

"

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign."

[jeff costello]

that was interesting. thanks.
media around here says time for exit-negotiations can take 2 years maximum and they expect the EU to insist on starting those 2 years very soon, because the economy does not like uncertainty.

as much as i don't wish any of you or britain in general any harm, i kinda wish the EU will take a harsh stance on the whole brexit-scenario and not come up with some wishwash that appeases the populist-nationalist trends.

 

[Mikee]

23 hours ago, monkeyseemonkeydo said:

At least we now know that 51.9% of people in the UK are officially stupid.

 

So much bigotry from the remainers since they lost. And all those young people saying that the older generation have less of a right to vote is sickening.

[Mark W]

51 minutes ago, jeff costello said:

that was interesting. thanks.
media around here says time for exit-negotiations can take 2 years maximum and they expect the EU to insist on starting those 2 years very soon, because the economy does not like uncertainty.

 

Yeah, the EU were pushing for us to start the 2 year process immediately, and Cameron pre-referendum said he would, but now they're pussying out and saying that they need to do their "Informal negotiations" first.  None of them want to pull the trigger.

11 minutes ago, Mikee said:

 

And all those young people saying that the older generation have less of a right to vote is sickening.

I think some older voters coming out and saying that they knew it would hit young people more than it would ever hit them probably didn't help, but ultimately - as ever - there was a higher turn-out among older people so even if the majority of young people did vote Remain, the overall majority of young people didn't even vote in the first place.  If you want your voice to be heard you've actually got to do something about it.

[Haz]

Someone on my facebook is posting all sorts of clips and articles, with comments about how destructive Brexit will be. She's in a state of absolute outrage. But it turns out, she didn't even vote...

[LiamWood!]

I voted out because I felt it was the correct way for me. 

[MadManMike]

I've still not heard any good reasons to vote out.

Still the same old vague "Take back control" and "The EU tells us what to do". So vague.

I honestly haven't heard one decent reason to leave, nothing that can't be proved wrong after 4 seconds on Google anyway.

[monkeyseemonkeydo]

Love the fact that 'dem immigrants' was a key motivation for a lot of leave voters and the first thing that's going to happen is France is going to tell us to GTFO of Calais and move our border back to this side of the channel. Dover jungle anyone? 

I'm still of the firm opinion that the majority of leave voters were narrow minded f**kwits who probably read the Sun or whatever shite was spouting propaganda and who now deserve the shit storm that's coming.

[isitafox]

Until all the dust has settled and the various deals have been made there is no possible way anyone can say staying in the EU was the better choice. 

Only time will tell

[monkeyseemonkeydo]

1 hour ago, LiamWood! said:

I voted out because I felt it was the correct way for me. 

Can you elaborate on that? What elements of being out of the EU will directly benefit you? Genuinely interested as I've yet to hear anything positive that can come from it.

[tomturd]

One of the Remain camp on question time earlier pretty much nailed it:

6 hours ago, Anna Soubry said:

look i think if there’s something that's gone wrong, the problem has been is that you can’t say to people after decades of telling them the EU is not good, in 4 months to say to people “actually, not only is it rather good, but positively go out and vote for it” so thats been the problem we’ve had in politics

So there's one reason.

"How does the EU directly benefit you?" - it may be easy for us to answer (I'm guessing most people here are fairly well off by the very fact we, or our parents, can afford to buy an expensive, highly specialised piece of sporting equipment), but ask the same question to the 23% of the population who live in relative poverty. Or try explaining to someone who has to beg a food bank for hand outs "but you can go on holiday without a passport!" and see what response you get. Unfortunately an EU funded train station doesn't really help those people.

So I think it's unfair to say everyone who voted leave is an idiot, not all of us are lucky enough to be in our situation. Granted, the situation might not get any better, or it could get a whole lot worse for the poorest of our country. But it might, from their point of view, might get better, if they feel it can't get any worse.

That aside, It'll be interesting to see what the markets do in the morning. ( I'm old, aren't I  )

[CC12345678910]

Sometime the week or weekend before the vote me & two of my mates were having a general craic. The subject came up and I summised that although i wasn't that bothered about making the trip down the polling station (I did though), on the face of it I couldn't see one reason - good/bad/indifferent - to vote in, and would love to meet someone local who was, to genuinely ask them, why?? (because ultimately your location will sway your view I felt asking someone not from this area, not from this walk of life and not facing the same issues in life would make the answer somewhat irrelevent)

I don't mean in angry way or with any tone at all, just ask the question out of utter bemusement.

I did a quick straw poll with said friends and they said they couldn't (& nor could I) think of one person they knew that was voting in, which left leave, or those just not bothering, which in any other vote is where I have always set up shop. I reckon we were pretty on the money.

1 hour ago, tomturd said:

"How does the EU directly benefit you?" - it may be easy for us to answer (I'm guessing most people here are fairly well off by the very fact we, or our parents, can afford to buy an expensive, highly specialised piece of sporting equipment), I just go without things in life others consider necceary or an entitlement to afford my sport, I ain't got much else so without bikes I would be much the worse for it. Bikes, and ultimatley finding the means to pay for them gives me the drive in life that I need, the self enforced metaphorical rocket up the arse, if you will. 

but ask the same question to the 23% of the population who live in relative poverty. Or try explaining to someone who has to beg a food bank for hand outs "but you can go on holiday without a passport!" and see what response you get. Unfortunately an EU funded train station doesn't really help those people.

See this is the kind of detachment, self entitlement and ultimately lack of humility I mean... Infrastucture investment = good obviously (unless it's HS2 - that's just lots backroom shit with stuffed brown evelopes) but from my eyes, as someone who has never left the uk, hasn't ever held a passport because at every point of going to foreign climbs it requires money that I have never had, to then listen to examples on the news of binty 18yo uni girls whinging about being sooo much worse off, while on they're way to spain or sunny beach so they can go get f**ked 6 ways to sunday by any/everything that has a pulse, that pisses me off just a hair...

So I think it's unfair to say everyone who voted leave is an idiot, not all of us are lucky enough to be in our situation. Granted, the situation might not get any better. But if they feel it can't get any worse, it might get better.

My view precisely.

And If the hulking great vacuous juggernaut that the EU has become implodes as I feel it could/will, we want to be a spectator going "Haah shoulda bailed people", not one of the ones mixed up in the shitstorm, surely??

Edited June 27, 2016 by CC12345678910

[Swamptin]

14 hours ago, jeff costello said:

it's all pretty well dire. nobody gets what they wanted. and you can't even really vote again, because this undermines fundamental democratic principles.

Hey Jeff, for giggles you should look up the history of the Irish referendums on Lisbon. We got the answer wrong so our government re-ran the referendum. We got it right in the end though.

 

Although, I'll admit, that does raise the question of "Was it really democratic?" The answer, on the face of it is no. If referendums are legally binding, then you're stuck with it. But the key reason Lisbon got rejected was distrust and misinformation. Nobody to this day is exactly happy we had to vote on it a second time, but the treaty wasn't clearly explained. The margins were 53% to 46% no/yes in the first one, and 33% to 67% no/yes the second time. There was a slightly higher turnout the second time, 59% as against 51%. But the crux of it was that people didn't understand what they were voting on, those that did were convinced it would pass, and the full implications of a no vote the first time. It was a campaign of fear. The second time, iirc, they actually informed (as much as one can when discussing a EU treaty) the electorate about the referendum. Do I think running a second referendum when the margin was so close would be a bad idea for the UK? Nope. It'll still have negative effects though, even staying in the EU the UK has signed up for a second recession and openly embraced xenophobia. I think the 'roll your shirts up' attitude is good, here's hoping ye can keep the fascists at bay.

As for the "What has the EU/EEC/EEA ever done for us?" thing... well, there is this wikipedia article which seems to show a decline in wars. There was a lovely 11 year period between 1976 and 1988 when the only active conflict on the continent was in Northern Ireland.

[jeff costello]

5 hours ago, Swamptin said:

Hey Jeff, for giggles you should look up the history of the Irish referendums on Lisbon. We got the answer wrong so our government re-ran the referendum. We got it right in the end though.

didn't know that story. i'd be totally happy if britain came up with some kind of solution to stay. a good solution with a bad aftertaste is probably preferable to a mouthfull of shit.

i get your point about misinformation, but it's still complicated: who is  to decide that the 'people were misinformed / duped / intimidated'? politicians? the press? sociologists? make another referendum to decide whether the last one was flawed? no proper democracry should allow for votes being repeated until something good comes out.

i start to understand the german legislation more and more which does not include referendums at all.