george_seamons Posted September 13, 2012 Report Share Posted September 13, 2012 Following a question I saw on Facebook, I decided to bring it to the attention of Trials Forum. I found it very interesting to see different peoples' reactions to a fairly simple question. It goes as follows; If you choose an answer at random, what is your probability of being correct? A: 25% B: 50% C: 60% D: 25% So....what do the people of T-F think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shercofray Posted September 13, 2012 Report Share Posted September 13, 2012 (edited) Depends on the number of possible answers.. Edit: Re-read and guessing 0.5. Edited September 13, 2012 by shercofray Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomturd Posted September 13, 2012 Report Share Posted September 13, 2012 Depends on the number of possible answers.. Edit: Re-read and guessing 0.5. There are 3 answers, 25%, 50% or 60%. The bit that makes it confusing is that the answers are percentages. If you replace the percentages with something else, eg cat, dog and horse, then you the chances of the answer being cat (25%) are higher than dog (50%) or horse (60%). But you still can't be sure.... Gah! Edit, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem is a similar thing, worth a read although the Wikipedia article is a bit long. Even got my dad with this and he is usually on the ball with this kind of thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greetings Posted September 13, 2012 Report Share Posted September 13, 2012 My brain... In all seriousness I don't get it. The probability of randomly being correct depends on the number of possible answers. The answers you give have nothing to do with the question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shercofray Posted September 13, 2012 Report Share Posted September 13, 2012 My brain... In all seriousness I don't get it. The probability of randomly being correct depends on the number of possible answers. The answers you give have nothing to do with the question. It relates to the question itself though.. The grounds for my answer was the there are four answers, 25%, 50%, 60% and 25%. If you pick 25% there is a 0.5 chance you will be right and 0.25 chance for the other two answers. I don't think there is a correct answer though - as Tom's was different - more likely to be right though . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casualjoe Posted September 13, 2012 Report Share Posted September 13, 2012 (edited) I'm guessing at 0.375. That's assuming you meant to write 4 answers with 2 of them being the same? I'm changing that to 0.25 now, still guessing Edited September 13, 2012 by casualjoe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyBoy Posted September 13, 2012 Report Share Posted September 13, 2012 Paradoxical question Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JD™ Posted September 13, 2012 Report Share Posted September 13, 2012 I would say you picking an answer at random would be choosing A, B, C, or D. That'd mean you've got a 1 in 4 chance of getting it right. Assuming there is only one right answer, it doesn't matter what A, B, C and D actually relate to because A and D are completely distinct. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake. Posted September 14, 2012 Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 I would say you picking an answer at random would be choosing A, B, C, or D. That'd mean you've got a 1 in 4 chance of getting it right. Assuming there is only one right answer, it doesn't matter what A, B, C and D actually relate to because A and D are completely distinct. My thoughts exactly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
george_seamons Posted September 14, 2012 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 Well...I (and several other people!) went totally the other way, and took the question more literally. A lot of people mistake the answers for being part of the question...I don't think they are. It says "If you choose AN ANSWER at random, what is your probability of being correct?". An answer to what? It doesn't actually give a question. No matter what the question; you can only be correct, or incorrect. ...Thus 50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JT! Posted September 14, 2012 Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 If you choose an answer at random, what is your probability of being correct? A: 25% B: 50% C: 60% D: 25% The wording of this question is a little wrong, "what is your probability of being correct"... correct what? There isn't a question to be answered. There's a 25% chance of picking any answer, but because there's two answers that are 25%, that means the correct answer to the question is 50%. But that changes the answer of the question. So without a more defined question, the whole thing makes no sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greetings Posted September 14, 2012 Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 No matter what the question; you can only be correct, or incorrect. ...Thus 50% On that basis, you have a 50% chance of winning the lottery. That's warped logic. I was never good with probabilities, but the answer you've given is the answer to a different question I can't precisely figure out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
george_seamons Posted September 14, 2012 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 It all depends on how it is written. I will either win the lottery or I won't, according to the way this question is worded. Hence it being 50%. The "answers" have NOTHING to do with the question. It is crapply worded, I think that's the whole point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casualjoe Posted September 14, 2012 Report Share Posted September 14, 2012 an Little slippery turd word. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eskimo Posted September 18, 2012 Report Share Posted September 18, 2012 George is right. But also there is no true random answer. Humans aren't random, influence effects everyone. Cba to explain anymore on my phone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hI-OOPS-CAPS Posted September 19, 2012 Report Share Posted September 19, 2012 George is right. But also there is no true random answer. Humans aren't random, influence effects everyone. Cba to explain anymore on my phone. What if you're hypnotised? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casualjoe Posted September 26, 2012 Report Share Posted September 26, 2012 So, What's unusual about this paragraph? Just how quickly you can find out what is so funny about it. It looks fairly ordinary and plain that you might think nothing is wrong with it. In fact, nothing is wrong with it! It is highly curious though. Study it and think about it, but you still may not find anything odd. But if you work at it a bit, you could just find out. Quick Hint: What is missing within this paragraph? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revolver Posted September 26, 2012 Report Share Posted September 26, 2012 It reads like something someone from abroad wrote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casualjoe Posted September 26, 2012 Report Share Posted September 26, 2012 I'll let that stew for a bit.. Also, which side of a cat is the hairiest? If your still into this, how many degrees are there between the two hands of a clock at 3:15 pm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamR28 Posted September 26, 2012 Report Share Posted September 26, 2012 how many degrees are there between the two hands of a clock at 3:15 pm? 7.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Rainbird Posted September 26, 2012 Report Share Posted September 26, 2012 Also, which side of a cat is the hairiest? The outside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.Wood Posted September 26, 2012 Report Share Posted September 26, 2012 From experience, I can say the inside of a female cat is not hairy, Luke you are correct. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
casualjoe Posted September 26, 2012 Report Share Posted September 26, 2012 Haha! The outside. I first said underside, dur. Anyway.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revolver Posted September 27, 2012 Report Share Posted September 27, 2012 There's no Es, but it's also true that there is something wrong with it, and that would be bad grammar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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